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[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.2 (2016.10)

[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.2 (2016.10)

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Featured Articles The Demographic Cliff: How It Will Impact Asia’s Steel Demand

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  • Changes in working-age population determine economic fundamentals. They are directly related to steel demand, because the working-age population is the main consumer group of houses and vehicles, the key sources of steel demand. Therefore, the acceleration of decline in working-age population will have a negative impact on economic growth and steel consumption.
  • Learning lessons from advanced countries about the experience of population aging, there are some characteristics in common: the share of manufacturing shrinks in the economic structure, while the share of service increases; and steel consumption declines after a peak. Particularly in the case of Japan, which is the world’s most aged society, changes in working-age population has a strong correlation with changes in the steel-consuming industries and steel consumption.
  • The decrease in working-age population in Korea, China, and Japan, which have led growth of the global steel industry until now, will have a negative impact on global steel demand in the medium to long term. It is unlikely that India and the ASEAN’s demand will grow fast enough to offset the decline in steel demand in the three East Asian countries.
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