Featured ArticlesThe Demographic Cliff: How It Will Impact Asia’s Steel Demand
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Changes in working-age population determine economic fundamentals.They are directly related to steel demand, because the working-age population is the main consumer group of houses and vehicles, the key sources of steel demand. Therefore, the acceleration of decline in working-age population will have a negative impact on economic growth and steel consumption.
Learning lessons from advanced countries about the experience of population aging, thereare some characteristics in common: the share ofmanufacturing shrinks in the economic structure,while the share of service increases; and steel consumptiondeclines after a peak.Particularly in the case of Japan, which is the world’s most aged society, changes in working-age population has a strong correlation with changes in the steel-consuming industries and steel consumption.
The decrease in working-age population inKorea, China, and Japan,which have led growthof the global steel industryuntil now, will havea negative impact onglobal steel demand in the medium to long term.It is unlikely that India and the ASEAN’s demand will grow fast enough tooffset the decline in steel demand in the three East Asian countries.