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[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.4 (2017.12)

[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.4 (2017.12)

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Market Trend and Analysis Asian Steel Market Outlook: Flat Product Demand for the Next Ten Years

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  • This section forecasts flat steel demand upon close examination of steel-consuming industries, including automobile, shipbuilding, and home appliance, in major Asian countries—Korea, China, Japan, India, and the ASEAN-5—over the next decade (2018-2027).
  • Steel-consuming industry outlook in Korea, China, Japan, India, and the ASEAN-5
  • Automobile: Automobile production in China, the ASEAN-5, and India is expected to grow continuously by 2027 thanks to government policy support and facility investment by global automakers, despite low growth trends around the world.
  • Shipbuilding: Global shipbuilding deliveries will decline to 50.4 mil. GT by 2020 due to the“order cliff” of the last 2-3 years, but will gradually recover by 2025.
  • Home appliance: As Chinese home appliance makers go global through M&As with US and Japanese enterprises, they are threatening the traditional strongholds of Japan and Korea.
 
< Steel-consuming Industry Outlook in Asia >
  Automobile production
(mil. units)
Shipbuilding deliveries (mil. GT) Home appliance production
2016 2027 CAGR
(‘17~’27)
2016 2027 CAGR
(‘17~’27)
2016 2027 CAGR
(‘17~’27)
China 28.1 37.7 2.7% 22.3 24.1 0.7% 417.0 456.0 0.8%
Korea 4.2 4.5 0.6% 25.4 20.6 -1.9% 16.9 15.8 -0.6%
Japan 9.2 9.5 0.3% 13.3 13.9 0.4% 7.59 7.57 0.0%
India 4.5 7.8 5.0% - - - 25.0 34.2 2.9%
ASEAN-5 4.0 5.8 3.4% - - - 64.6 96.6 3.7%
Source: POSRI
 
  • Flat steel demand outlook in Korea, China, Japan, India, and the ASEAN-5
  • Despite sluggish demand for flat products in the construction sector, China’s overall flat product demand is expected to grow at a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 0.6% to reach 320 Mt by 2027 thanks to robust demand for automobiles.
  • Flat product demand will remain sluggish until 2020 since the country has the largest share of shipbuilding within total flat product demand among all East Asian countries. However, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1% after 2020.
  • Flat product demand is expected to grow slightly at a CAGR of 0.6% over the next decade due to stagnation in the automotive and home appliance industries and only weak recovery in the shipbuilding industry.
  • Flat product demand will continue to grow robustly at a CAGR of approximately 6% by 2027, thanks to high growth in major steel-consuming industries, including automobiles and construction.
  • Flat product demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 5.2% to reach 67 Mt by 2027 thanks to robust growth in construction investment and rapid expansion of the automotive and home appliance markets.
< Flat Steel Demand Outlook in Asia >
(Mt) 2016 2018 2020 2024 2027 CAGR
(‘16~’20)
CAGR
(‘21~’27)
CAGR
(‘16~’27)
China 297.3 305.6 312.1 314.9 316.7 1.2% 0.2% 0.6%
Korea 28.3 28.1 29.0 30.5 31.4 0.6% 1.2% 1.0%
Japan 29.5 30.1 30.3 30.8 31.5 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
India 32.7 36.3 41.6 54.2 63.9 6.2% 6.3% 6.3%
ASEAN-5 38.4 42.6 47.8 58.5 67.2 5.6% 5.0% 5.2%
 
Source: POSRI
 
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